Modelling Risk Perceptions of Stakeholders in Public–Private Partnership Toll Road Contracts

This paper investigates the risk perceptions of key stakeholder groups typically involved in public–private partnership (PPP) toll roads. Risk perceptions have an important impact on these PPP schemes for investing in public infrastructure. However, the nature and extent of risk associated with the specification of a PPP contract that commits contracting parties to deliver on their obligations remain unclear. In the context of major transport infrastructure, such as a new toll road, the often‐cited key risk to investors is the traffic (and hence demand) risk. There are, however, other risks, including political risk and media risk, the latter often causing untold harm resulting in modifications to the planned infrastructure. This paper develops a method to capture evidence on how public sector and private sector partners involved in previous PPPs perceive the levels of risk associated with each risk attribute, as a way of identifying the ex ante risk setting brought to negotiations in PPP toll road investments. Using a sample of 101 experts with contract experience in 32 countries, we develop a stated choice experiment and estimate a discrete choice model to quantify a risk profile index (RPI) to capture the perceived (relative) influence of each dimension of risk, and then identify sources of systematic differences in the RPI as a way of understanding the influence of personal traits and contextual and contractual factors.     

Interest Rates and Credit Risk

This paper explores the effects of shifts in interest rates on corporate leverage and default in the context of a dynamic model in which the link between leverage and default risk comes from the lower incentives of overindebted entrepreneurs to guarantee firm survival. The need to finance new investment pushes firms' leverage ratio above some state‐contingent target toward which firms gradually adjust through earnings retention. The response to interest rate rises and cuts is both asymmetric and heterogeneously distributed across firms. Our results help rationalize some of the evidence regarding the risk‐taking channel of monetary policy.     

Do Prices Reveal the Presence of Informed Trading?

Using a comprehensive sample of trades from Schedule 13D filings by activist investors, we study how measures of adverse selection respond to informed trading. We find that on days when activists accumulate shares, measures of adverse selection and of stock illiquidity are lower, even though prices are positively impacted. Two channels help explain this phenomenon: (1) activists select times of higher liquidity when they trade, and (2) activists use limit orders. We conclude that, when informed traders can select when and how to trade, standard measures of adverse selection may fail to capture the presence of informed trading.     

Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Prediction Revisited

This paper measures latent fundamental exchange rates with independent component‐based rates constructed from a cross‐section of exchange rates and then uses their deviations from exchange rates to forecast. Empirical results indicate that the independent component‐based model and its Taylor rule and purchasing power parity augmented models are superior to the random walk in predicting exchange rates. These results are robust to several scenarios and are likely to be observed if the U.S. sources and the recursive scheme are applied. Our results reveal that information regarding the third moment of exchange rate changes is helpful to explain exchange rate movements.     

Failures to Deliver,Short Sale Constraints,and Stock Overvaluation

Studying a large sample of publicly available data on failures to deliver, we find that stocks reaching threshold levels of failures become significantly overvalued. Where short sale constraints are especially binding, we report extreme overpricing and subsequent reversals. These findings support the overvaluation hypothesis, although the mispricing is likely to be difficult to arbitrage because of extreme shorting costs. In addition, threshold stocks with low short interest become more overvalued than threshold stocks with high short interest. This suggests that the level of short interest reflects supply‐side effects when the examination conditions on the difficulty of borrowing shares.     

Performance of Foreign and Global Mutual Funds: The Role of Security Selection,Region‐Shifting,and Style‐Shifting Abilities

We examine the performance of U.S.‐based foreign and global funds after controlling for their regional and style exposure. We show that, on average, the total performance (TP) and security selection abilities of both foreign and global funds are significantly negative and exhibit short‐term predictability. Additionally, R² reflects funds’ security selection abilities, consistent with previous findings for domestic mutual funds. Investors can earn higher abnormal returns and TP in the short run by purchasing past winners with low R² than by purchasing past losers with high R². However, there is no evidence of predictability in the funds' region‐shifting and style‐shifting abilities.     

Does Labor Power Affect the Likelihood of a Share Repurchase?

This research examines the impact of labor power on the firm's repurchase decisions. Firms facing stronger labor power repurchase fewer shares, suggesting that, on average, repurchases are against the interests of labor. However, the negative effect of labor power on repurchases is significantly reduced when repurchases benefit employees by fending off an unwanted takeover or countering the dilution effects of employee stock options. We also examine the ex post consequences of share repurchases. Repurchases are positively related to the probability of a strike. Repurchase announcement returns and the operating performance of repurchasing firms are negatively related to labor power.     

Management Roles and Sustainability Information. Exploring Corporate Practice

Little empirical research has been conducted on perceptions of the types of sustainability information dealt with by different managers in internal company processes. In this study the roles of different managers are distinguished based on contingency theory and using the categorisation in the sustainability balanced scorecard concept. Expected sustainability information types are identified for these roles and hypotheses are derived and tested about perceptions of the types of sustainability information in different management roles. Interviews identified 116 roles involved with sustainability information in a set of leading German and UK sustainability reporting companies. Results from analysing sustainability information types contingent upon different management roles contribute to the understanding of sustainability accounting systems and practices and how companies can best support different management roles with appropriate sustainability information.     

基于大数据文本分析的云南旅游服务质量感知研究

在新冠肺炎疫情的冲击下旅游业进入寒冬,学界开始愈发关注游客自身,游客的情感特征和行为特征研究也成为重要话题。文章基于大数据技术获取赴云南旅游游客的评论数据,运用情感分析方法对游客的情感倾向和特征进行分析,了解游客对云南旅游服务质量的感知情况,最后运用可视化技术将其直观地展示出来,深度挖掘评论文本信息,探寻影响游客情感倾向的主要因素。结果表明:（1）游客产生正、负面情感评论的原因不同。（2）游客非常重视旅途中的体验感。（3）游客对不同城市的情感倾向与该城市的旅游基础特征息息相关。同时,文章从游客角度出发,试图利用旅游大数据研究游客情感偏好,通过分析游客产生正负面情感倾向的原因,为云南省旅游服务质量优化提供了思路,并提出改进建议,以期提高云南省旅游服务质量水平,推动疫情之下的旅游业回暖。